Forecasting a company’s future growth rate is an art rather than a science but…
there are a few factors that can help educate assumptions regarding growth rates.
𝗙𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁, 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗴𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁?
The top-line revenue growth assumption is one of the main drivers in valuing a business. Nearly everything else flows from there.
So it’s very important to be as thoughtful about this as follows.
It’s tempting to believe the story that “this one company is different because …. “.
But taking a more macro view helps develop a more objective and credible valuation.
There are always exceptions and nuances, but here are some factors that I often use to think through this assumption.
𝟭) 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲:Past performance can be a predictor for future performance. A company that had, say 25% growth rate the past two years can be expected to grow faster than a business that has, say, only experienced 3% growth.
𝟮) 𝗦𝗶𝘇𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘆:As a company becomes larger and larger, it becomes harder to acquire new customers at the same economics as it did earlier, so growth rates tend to come down.
𝟯) 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲𝘀:Evaluate the industry’s and company’s strengths and weaknesses, and using a simple framework such as Michael Porter’s five forces analysis.
– Competiton– New market entrants– Substitutes– Strength of suppliers– Strength of customers
Even if the analysis is not rigorously based in data, using this framework helps ensure that we are not overlooking anything important.
𝟰) 𝗟𝗶𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗺:
Most firms and industries generally follow a growth cycle… startup, growth, maturity and decline.
Benchmark where the specific company lies along this spectrum as a guideline for growth projections.